Let’s be honest—most of us are struggling to make sense of the world right now. Things we once took for granted—geopolitical stability, open markets, basic democratic norms—are being upended at a pace that is hard to comprehend, let alone plan for. The rules-based order? It’s crumbling. What seemed like “unthinkable” risks just a few years ago are now our daily reality.
At the latest Competent Boards Global Forum, we gathered with alums and global leaders from across industries and sectors to discuss the seismic shifts affecting businesses, investors, governments, and communities worldwide. Our special guest, Nik Gowing, former BBC news anchor and founder of Thinking the Unthinkable, helped frame a stark reality: the world as we knew it is gone, and most leaders are dangerously unprepared for what’s next.
For years, Nik has been warning boards and executives that they must be prepared to think the unthinkable. But even those who saw this instability coming are shocked by the speed and severity of what’s unfolding.
As the conversation unfolded, the message was clear: Leaders can no longer afford to be passive observers. The world is being reshaped by forces beyond traditional control—geopolitical upheaval, economic fragmentation, climate crisis, AI-driven misinformation, and the erosion of democratic norms. The question isn’t if change will happen but how leaders can stay ahead of it and shape the future rather than being swallowed by it.
The hard truth: Nothing is certain anymore
One of the most jarring insights shared during the forum was the realization that events are unfolding at an unprecedented pace.
· Five weeks. That’s how long Trump has been back in office, and already, the global order is unrecognizable
· Executive orders are replacing democratic processes. The U.S. administration has been reshaping policies at an alarming rate, bypassing traditional legislative checks and balances
· The U.S. has shut down USAID. This isn’t just about money; it’s about a complete shift in global influence. Developing nations that rely on this funding are scrambling. Who steps in to fill the void?
Meanwhile, the world’s economic pinball machine keeps speeding up. As I’ve said before, we can no longer just “skate to where the puck is going,” as Wayne Gretzky famously said.
We are no longer on a 2-dimensional ‘ice hockey field.’ We are operating a pinball machine in a Matrix reality where the layout of the pinball machine (and the world) can change every time the pinball hits a wall. And you will not only have ‘one ball in the air.’ You will have to master navigating many scenarios at the same time. One tariff here, a policy reversal there, and suddenly, entire industries are thrown into uncertainty. This week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on European goods, sending shockwaves through global markets. Canada and Mexico are bracing for what comes next.
And let’s not forget the cascading impact of these disruptions: rising food prices, supply chain bottlenecks, financial market volatility, and political extremism fueled by economic anxiety.
As Nik put it, “We are witnessing the unhinging of stability at a scale few leaders are prepared for.”
The psychological impact: Fear, mistrust, and paralysis
At Munich’s recent Security Conference, diplomats—who are usually reserved and calculated—were visibly shaken. Nik shared that “normally composed and restrained political and diplomatic figures were literally spitting with outrage at Trump’s 90 minute conversation with Putin, without him telling any ally in advance. Many likened it to being in Munich in 1938 before the appeasement of Hitler”.
That level of raw emotion tells us something: this is different. And if even seasoned political operators are struggling to maintain composure, what does that mean for corporate and investment leaders? You can’t sit this one out.
At the forum, we heard from leaders across Europe, Canada, the U.S., South Africa, and beyond. One thing became clear: people are exhausted.
· Many have stopped watching the news entirely, just to preserve their mental health
· Others feel paralyzed—unsure of whether to react, respond, or just wait and see
· Some have even retreated into ideological silos, reinforcing their own worldviews rather than engaging in meaningful dialogue
But here’s the problem: waiting is not a strategy.
Leaders don’t have the luxury of hiding from reality. The world is moving, with or without them. Those who fail to proactively shape their organizations’ futures will find themselves swept away by forces beyond their control.
The role of business leaders
For decades, businesses have operated in an environment where governments set the rules; international institutions ensured stability and financial markets functioned with a degree of predictability. That world no longer exists.
Today, businesses are facing a seismic shift in responsibility—not just for their bottom lines but also for economic resilience, social stability, and even geopolitical strategy. While political leaders debate, delay, and, in some cases, dismantle global norms, businesses are stepping up to fill the void.
At the forum, we outlined three urgent priorities for business leaders:
1. Strengthening trade partnerships beyond traditional allies
For decades, businesses have built trade and investment strategies based on predictable alliances and stable agreements. Those days are gone.
The U.S. is shifting toward protectionist policies, including the recent 25% tariff threat on European goods. With U.S.-China relations strained, Canadian, European, and Asian businesses are actively diversifying their trading partners to avoid overreliance on one region.
This means:
· Expanding regional trade agreements to reduce dependency on any single market
· Building new supply chain networks that bypass geopolitical flashpoints
· Strengthening ties with Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, which are emerging as key economic players
The message from the forum was clear: waiting for trade policies to stabilize is not an option. Businesses that proactively diversify their trade relationships now will be far more resilient to future shocks.
2. Investing in supply chain resilience—before the next crisis hits
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed how fragile global supply chains are—but instead of improving, vulnerabilities are increasing.
At the forum, we discussed real-world examples of how businesses are:
· Re-shoring and near-shoring production to mitigate geopolitical risks
· Building redundancy into supply chains—having multiple sources for critical materials instead of relying on a single supplier
· Investing in AI-driven supply chain risk management to identify potential disruptions before they happen
One executive from a global manufacturing firm shared a sobering insight: “We used to optimize for cost-efficiency. Now, we optimize for survival.”
If your supply chain still relies on just-in-time inventory, a single region for critical materials, or politically unstable markets, you are already behind.
3. Scenario planning for the unthinkable—because the unthinkable is already happening
At the start of 2022, most business leaders would have dismissed:
· A full-scale war in Ukraine
· The collapse of U.S. global aid programs
· A major Western leader engaging in direct negotiations with Putin without consulting allies
· The rollback of corporate DEI programs under government pressure
Yet all of these events are now realities.
Business leaders must stop assuming stability and start planning for chaos.
That means:
· Running regular scenario planning exercises that test organizational resilience against multiple crisis scenarios.
· Asking: What happens if another major war disrupts global markets?
· Stress-testing financial and operational strategies against the risk of economic fragmentation.
· Ensuring that leadership teams understand geopolitical risks and don’t treat them as distant political issues.
One board member at the forum put it bluntly: “If your crisis plans only account for things you’ve already seen, it’s already outdated.”
Final Thought
This isn’t just another cycle of uncertainty—it’s a fundamental paradigm shift in how businesses, economies, and societies function. The way leaders think, plan, and act today will determine their relevance tomorrow.
At Competent Boards, we don’t claim to have all the answers, but we do know one thing for sure: standing still is not an option. Waiting for clarity, waiting for stability, waiting for someone else to take the lead? That’s the fastest route to irrelevance.
So, here’s what you can do right now:
· Pressure-test your business strategy against worst-case scenarios. If your plan only works in a stable world, you don’t have a plan
· Engage with your board and executive team—do they understand the new risks? Are they prepared to take decisive action? If not, start the conversation today
· Diversify your markets, supply chains, and partnerships—before disruption forces your hand
· Double down on your values. If you don’t define your company’s role in this shifting world, someone else will.
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